In the world of college football, where every game can make or break a season, the concept of luck plays a significant role. It's not just about the final score; it's about the twists and turns that lead to that score. This year, I'm taking a closer look at the teams that benefited and suffered the most from one-score games in conference play last season, and how these results might impact their fortunes in 2026.
One thing that immediately stands out is the impact of luck on team performance. Teams that win consistently tend to avoid one-score games, as these close contests often come down to a coin flip. However, for those that do find themselves in these tight battles, the results can be a true test of their mettle.
In my opinion, the Arizona State Sun Devils are a team that benefited from luck last season. They went 5-1 in one-score games, but their average point margin was only 1.5 points per game. This is a team that lost key players like Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson, and their wins were often by the skin of their teeth. While I'm a big fan of Kenny Dillingham, these numbers make me wary of the Sun Devils' prospects for 2026.
On the other hand, teams like California and Kansas State suffered from a lack of luck. The Golden Bears won four ACC games by a combined total of 16 points, while the Wildcats lost four Big 12 games by a combined total of 24 points. These teams were simply out-executed in high-leverage situations, and their fortunes may not even out in the long run.
One team that stands out as particularly unlucky is Arkansas. In the College Football Playoff era, the Hogs have played 44 one-score games in their 98 SEC games, and they've won just 10 of them. This is the worst win percentage of any team in the country, and it's a stark reminder of the heartbreak that close games can bring. However, if luck does even out for everybody in the long run, there's a national title run in Arkansas' future, with the Hogs going 15-0 and outscoring opponents by 20 points combined.
In conclusion, while luck plays a significant role in college football, it's not the only factor that determines a team's success. Execution, strategy, and talent all play a part, and it's these factors that will ultimately determine which teams thrive and which teams struggle in 2026.
